RATING ACTION:
On September 15, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the Issuer/Sovereign Credit ratings CariAA (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on its regional rating scale assigned to the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GORTT). A stable outlook was maintained.
RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement in the ratings and/or outlook include:
- A decrease in total general government debt to below 65% of GDP over the next 12 months
- A sustained improvement in debt servicing capability to above 7 times over 2 consecutive years
- A fiscal surplus in excess of 3% of GDP sustained over 2 consecutive years
- A rise in import cover to 12 months or more over the next 24 months
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the ratings and/or outlook include:
- An increase in total general government debt to above 100% of GDP over the next 12 months
- A sustained deterioration in debt servicing capability to below 3 times over 2 consecutive years
- A fiscal deficit in excess of 10% of GDP sustained over 2 consecutive yearst:8-627-8879 Ext. 229
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- A fall in import cover to 6 months or less over the next 12 months
- Real GDP growth of < 1% in 2022 and/or growth of < 2% in 2023
RATING RATIONALE
Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the sovereign issuer credit ratings assigned to the Government of The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (GORTT) of CariAA (Foreign and Local Currency Ratings) on its regional rating scale. These ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of this obligor, adjudged in relation to other rated obligors in the Caribbean, is high.
CariCRIS has also maintained a stable outlook on the ratings. The stable outlook is based on projected macroeconomic stability over the next 12 to 18 months, led by: (i) a return to real GDP growth in 2022 and continued expansion in 2023; (ii) robustness in T&T’s sovereign wealth fund over the medium term; (iii) improvement in fiscal balances as COVID-19 impacts draw to a close, along with some positive tax receipts improvements and expenditure control measures; (iv) resultant expectations for reduction in debt to GDP; (v) continued financial sector soundness and (vi) adequacy in international reserves and import cover.
Analysts’ Contact Info:
Stefan Fortuné
Phone: 1-868-799-6751 (m)
Megan Dass
Phone: 1-868-627-8879
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