RATING ACTION:
On December 7, 2022, CariCRIS reaffirmed the overall issue rating of ttA+ (SO) on the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) national scale to the TT $200 million Collateralised Mortgage Obligation (CMO) of Home Mortgage Bank (HMB) (CMO 2019-01). A stable outlook was maintained.
RATING SENSITIVITY FACTORS:
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to an improvement of the rating and/or outlook:
- An improvement in the loan portfolio quality, with an NPL ratio of lower than 5% and/or a return to delinquency levels of 2% – 4% within the underlying mortgage pool over the next 12-15 months
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a lowering of the rating and/or outlook:
- Persistent and further deterioration in the mortgage pool quality with delinquency levels of above 20% and/ or NPL ratio of above 8% within the underlying mortgage pool leading to heightened extension and/ or default risk over the next 12-15 months
- Deterioration in TTMF’s NPLs to Gross loans ratio of above 10.5% sustained for 2 financial periods
- Consistent cash flow shortfalls in the underlying mortgage pool over the next 12-15 months
- A deterioration in the credit risk profile of T&T leading to increased market risk
The rating methodology we followed in assigning the ratings to the CMO is consistent with that utilised by the international rating agencies for rating securitised debt/structured obligations. Further, we worked closely with an expert at CRISIL in conducting this rating, who served as a peer review for the initial assignment.
Analysts’ Contact Info:
Anelia Oudit
Mobile : 1-868-487-8364